Somes Bar, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

480
FXUS66 KMFR 302105
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
205 PM PDT Fri May 30 2025

.DISCUSSION...Today will end up being the hottest day of the
year for many locations, thus far, with the axis of an upper
level ridge passing east of the Cascades.

The upper ridge will continue to exert its influence into
Saturday, especially east of the Cascades, but will shift into the
Great Basin. Most of the East Side will get quite warm again
(highs in the upper 80s/low 90s). Meanwhile, a short wave
upstream will approach the PacNW coast and this will induce a
strengthening pressure gradient across SW Oregon/NorCal. Expect an
uptick in gusty winds (25-30 mph) Saturday afternoon/evening as a
mostly dry front moves closer. Heights will be lowering compared
to today, so west side temps should end up about 5-10 degrees F
lower than they are today. While there are a couple of HREF
members that show a few blips here and there, the air mass is
quite dry and measurable precipitation probabilities are, in most
cases, less than 5%. So, we`ll be maintaining dry conditions in
the official forecast through Saturday.

The front sweeps through Saturday night and this will bring deep-
layer N-NE winds that will set up area wide into Sunday. The
strongest winds will be focused in the SW Oregon/NW California
mountains (coast ranges/Siskiyous and, to a lesser degree, the
Cascades). Guidance continues to show a fairly high probability
(70%) of wind gusts reaching 40 mph over the higher terrain and a
low chance (10%) at peak gusts exceeding 50 mph. While we don`t
think an advisory is necessary, some valleys with flow oriented
NE-SW (Illinois) could have some stronger breezes come Sunday
afternoon (30-35 mph) when the upper trough moves through. It will
also be quite windy along the coast. The most noticeable change
will be the cooling over the East Side, where high temps will be
down 15-20 F compared to Saturday. However, with the flow offshore
over the west side in SW Oregon, it could be warmer near Brookings
(even at the beaches), with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s. It
should be noted that a closed low is expected to form and move
southward along the NorCal coast Sunday, then toward the Bay Area
Sunday night. This will bring some mid-level moisture and
instability to portions of NorCal Sunday afternoon/evening. With a
front getting hung up in the northern Sierra, it might be able to
trigger an isolated thunderstorm or two in Lassen and perhaps as
far north as southern Modoc County. This is a low probability
(15-20% chance) event and most areas aren`t going to get anything
at all.

We`ll maintain a dry pattern into early next week with minor
disturbances pushing through at times. This should bring marine
pushes to the coast, especially north of Cape Blanco, and also
into portions of the Umpqua Basin along with enhanced breezy
conditions at times. But, no significant precipitation is
expected. With fire season beginning June 1st, and the dry weather
expected, fuels will continue to dry out. Currently, we do not
have any widespread initial attack concerns, but as we have seen
in the past couple of weeks, local grass fires can spread fairly
easily given gusty wind conditions. Please use extra care when
participating in activities that may create sparks or embers.
-Spilde

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z TAFs...All terminals are VFR right now.
Gusty north winds are affecting portions of the coast, including
North Bend, as a thermal trough affects the area. High clouds will
increase later today as a front approaches the coast. Low clouds are
possible in the North Bend area late tonight into early tomorrow
morning, and then ceilings will lift some, likely to MVFR or VFR, as
the front gets closer. Inland, terminals should remain VFR through
Saturday morning. -SK


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM Friday, May 30, 2025...A long duration
north wind event with steep to very steep seas is expected to last
into early next week. Currently, a thermal trough is bringing Small
Craft Advisory conditions to areas from around Cape Blanco
southward. The thermal trough will strengthen, and a period of
northerly Gale force winds and very steep seas is expected to start
in the southern waters Saturday evening and stretch northward
Sunday. Confidence has increased enough to issue a Gale Warning for
these expected conditions. Gusty north winds could continue in the
middle of next week. -SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Saturday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 5 PM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-
     356-370-376.

&&

$$

MAS/SK